POLITICAL MEMO
by Al From
Even with control of both houses of Congress at stake, we're likely to see the eighth straight midterm election this fall in which less than 40 percent of eligible voters actually vote.
That's right. The last time more than four in 10 voters turned out in a congressional election in a non-presidential year was 1970—during Richard Nixon's first term as president.
Turnout has been higher in presidential elections, but still low. In 2000, just over half the eligible voters (51.3 percent of the voting age population) went to the polls. In 1996, less than half (49 percent) voted.
Whatever the reason, too many Americans have failed to exercise the most basic
responsibility of citizenship: casting a ballot.
No single step will reverse voting trends overnight. But one step the two political parties can take now is to allow and even to encourage independents to vote in all primary elections. They ought to do it right now before the nominating process for the 2004 presidential election begins. In about one third of the states, independents cannot vote in presidential primaries, and in numerous others they have to jump through hoops to do so.
Allowing independents to vote in primaries would keep pace with three important trends in American politics today: the decline in voters' identification with both parties; the increased number of voters who call themselves moderates; and the decrease in competitive elections for Congress.
Consider these realities:
· More voters today identify themselves as independents than as Democrats or Republicans.
That's a radical change from a half-century ago. According to the National Election Studies at the University of Michigan, 50 years ago, three-quarters of all voters identified with political parties—47 percent with Democrats and 28 percent with Republicans. Just 23 percent were independent.
· In 2000, according to that same study, just 58 percent of voters identified with the two parties—34 percent with Democrats and 24 percent with Republicans—and 40 percent said they were independent. Those numbers are almost identical to those in the DLC's late July poll, in which 33 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independent.
· During the past two decades, the electorate has become increasingly moderate. In 1980, when Ronald Reagan was elected, 40 percent of voters identified themselves as conservative, 24 percent as liberal, and just 36 percent as moderate. Today, fully half the voters identify themselves as moderate. Conservatives have dropped to 30 percent and liberals to 20 percent.
It's little wonder that more and more voters find themselves put off by the polarizing political rhetoric that characterizes the debate in Washington. The voters' desire for a more moderate tone to their politics was not lost on Bill Clinton, who in 1996 called for "progress over partisanship," or on George W. Bush in 2000, who called himself "a unifier, not a divider." Neither was it surprising that in the Georgia primary election in August, voters decisively defeated two of the most partisan, polarizing members of Congress, Republican Bob Barr and Democrat Cynthia McKinney. Georgia's open primary law allows any voter, including independents, to vote in either party's primary.
· As a result of gerrymandering in redistricting, fewer and fewer congressional seats are even competitive. In state after state, by bipartisan agreement, Democratic and Republican districts were solidified and marginal, swing districts were virtually eliminated. Analyst Charlie Cook rates only 39 of 435 congressional races as competitive. After redistricting a decade ago, he rated 121 contests as competitive. That means that for the next decade, most congressional elections are likely to be decided in primaries, not general elections.
All of these trends cry out for allowing and encouraging independents to vote in all primaries. That won't be a panacea for our low turnout problem. In Texas, for example, where independents can vote in primaries, just over 10 percent of eligible voters turned out for this year's gubernatorial primary. But at least it will mean that all voters will be fully enfranchised in our electoral process. Over the long haul, that can only have a positive impact on voter participation.
It is in the interest of the political parties, as well, to encourage independents to vote in their primaries. It will encourage candidates to reduce their polarizing rhetoric—that's the lesson both Bob Barr and Cynthia McKinney learned. And, given the decline in voter identification with both parties, neither party can win national elections without commanding decisive support from independent voters.
Opening all primaries to independents is a simple idea that can help reinvigorate our democracy and broaden the appeal of our political parties at a time when low voter turnout and declining interest in both parties suggest it's important to do both.
Al From is founder and CEO of the Democratic Leadership
Council.
Copyright © Al From